金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,澳门7月博彩毛收入(GGR)同比增长19.0%至221亿澳门元,已恢复至2019年同期的90%,好于已上调后的市场预期(彭博一致预期中位数为13%)。2025年1-7月累计GGR同比增长6.5%至1409亿澳门元,恢复至2019年同期GGR的81%。供给端,丰富的演艺活动(张学友、权志龙等)以及新开/翻新物业有效吸引核心博彩客群,同时行业赢率或存结构性提升空间。但该机构判断需求端的变化为博彩行业数据好转的更核心原因,澳门博彩作为高端可选消费的重要风向标,或受益于近期内地高端消费者消费意愿的边际改善。在自上而下无增量利多/利空的中性假设下,该机构预测2025年行业GGR将实现8-10%的增长。
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