【券商聚焦】第一上海予中芯国际(00981)买入评级料下游需求逐步复苏驱动基本面稳步上升

金吾财讯

Aug 13

金吾财讯 | 第一上海发研报指，中芯国际(00981)2025Q2收入22.1亿美元，同比增长16.2%，环比下滑1.7%，略高于一致预期的21.6亿美元。本季度公司产能环比增长1.8万片至99.1万片等效8寸晶圆，产能利用率为92.5%，环比增加2.9pct。本季度8英寸和12英寸晶圆收入环比分别增长6.6%/下滑2.6%，主要系生产中新设备调试仍需时间以及下游消费电子市场需求回落影响。公司指引2025财年手机出货量同比持平，但下游客户市场份额的提升有望驱动公司订单供不应求至10月份，Q3晶圆ASP也有涨价预期。2025年AI相关需求增速在10%以上，晶圆出货量增长但价格将有小幅下滑，综合产能利用率逐步恢复至80%以上。截止2025Q1，公司位列全球第三大晶圆代工厂，市场份额6%，环比增长0.5pct。随着先进制程技术的突破和量产有望带动产业链上下游高速增长。该机构认为半导体国产替代的迫切性叠加下游客户因市场份额的提升带动需求增长将使得公司后续几个季度的产能利用率逐步回升。该机构预计公司未来三年的收入CAGR为25.0%，归母净利润CAGR为90.0%。基于公司2025年的盈利预期，该机构根据2.8倍PB的估值中枢给予公司目标价60.00港元，相对于当前股价有23.20%的上升空间，买入评级。

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