中银国际发表研究报告,小幅下调小米集团第二季度营收预测,从1230亿元下调至1140亿元,经调整净利润预测从109亿元下调至104亿元,主要反映以下因素:小米手机出货4250万部按季微增,但低端组合增加叠加储存成本上升,预估毛利率将略有下降;以及国内二季度部分省市暂停手机及IoT补贴。该行预计智能电动汽车及AI等创新业务板块二季度将进一步减亏,并有望在下半年如期盈利。但考虑到二期工厂投产时间略慢于此前预期,该行现将2025年销量预测小幅下调至40万台;同时该行认为2026年70万台的预测有上调空间。 该行表示,自近期高点回调16%后,认为小米现阶段估值又呈现极具吸引力,对公司中期的可持续性增长展望依然不变,维持行业首选,评级“买入”,目标价根据经营变化从75.25港元小幅下调至74.4港元。
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