Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1214 ET - Oil prices extend losses amid concerns over demand after the IEA forecast a larger supply surplus ahead and U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose. In evening trading, Brent crude is down 1.5% to $65.14 a barrel, while WTI trades 1.7% lower to $62.11 a barrel. "While the Brent market is waiting for direction, the WTI market is moving differently as U.S. oil fundamentals evolve post-summer," analysts at Rystad Energy say. Meanwhile, markets await Friday's summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin for more clarity on the future of Russian supplies. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says in an interview with Bloomberg TV that sanctions on Russia could either be tightened or loosened depending on the outcome of the meeting. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1140 ET - Large pharmaceutical companies' investments in U.S. production could exempt them from eye-watering tariff rates and help them avoid raising drug prices, says UBS analyst Trung Huynh in a media roundtable. Many of the largest pharma companies have recently committed to investing billions to ramp up U.S. production. It's unclear how much of those spending plans are actually new, Huynh says, but still, the commitments could win them exemptions from the Trump administration. A 150% tariff rate would force price hikes, but if there are exemptions that lead to minimal tariffs for the big companies, "I don't think there'll be any price increases," Huynh says. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

1123 ET - President Trump's plan for pharmaceutical tariffs that could rise to 250% leaves critical components uncertain, says UBS analyst Trung Huynh in a media roundtable. The industry doesn't know when those tariffs would be imposed, which companies would be exempted and whether they would be imposed on all pharmaceutical products including active ingredients and vaccines. It's also unclear whether tariffs would apply to the manufacturing cost of a drug or to the higher "transfer price" that's imposed when the drug is shipped to the U.S. Those question marks have huge implications for pharmaceutical companies and make industry predictions unreliable, Huynh says. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)

0813 ET - Gold futures rise on heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Futures are up 0.4% at $3,412.90 a troy ounce. Optimism for a rate cut in September is rising on benign consumer price index data and a weak nonfarm payroll print, Tradu.com's Nikos Tzabouras says in a note. This is weighing on the U.S. dollar, which competes with gold's safe-haven characteristics, and makes bullion's non-interest bearing nature more appealing, Tzabouras writes. Still, trade concerns have eased after the extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce and geopolitical tensions have cooled ahead of a summit between President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin. This limits gold's gains on safe-haven appeal, Tzabouras adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Ethereum rises to its highest level since December 2021 and could strengthen further, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says in a note. The blockchain stands to benefit July's passage of U.S. regulation that clears the way for mainstream adoption of stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to another asset like the dollar, he says. "Stablecoins account for 40% of all blockchain fees today, and more than 50% of stablecoins sit on Ethereum." Meanwhile, Ethereum treasury companies and exchange traded funds have bought 3.8% of all Ethereum in circulation in just two-and-a-half months, he says. StanChart raises its end-2025 forecast for Ethereum to $7,500 from $4,000 previously and its end-2028 forecast to $25,000 from $7,500. Ethereum reaches a high of $4,710, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0507 ET - President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics pose a threat to the dollar's outlook, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Trump on Tuesday repeated his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. Trump also threatened a lawsuit against Powell over pricey renovations at the Fed's headquarters in Washington D.C. On Monday, Trump nominated conservative think tank economist EJ Antoni to replace the BLS chief he fired earlier this month. "Increasingly this carries echos of autocratic countries, where the heads of statistics agencies or central banks are being replaced," Pfister says. This a negative development for the dollar, he says. The DXY dollar index falls to a two-week low of 97.699. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0427 ET - Slowing demand is likely limiting inflationary pressures in the U.S., says David Kohl, chief economist at Julius Baer. Scattered signs, such as rising prices of apparel and electronics, suggest that tariffs are driving up prices. However, housing costs, the biggest factor in overall inflation, continued to increase at a moderate pace in June, stabilizing the dynamics, he says in a note. Kohl reckons the full impact of the tariffs, which increased in August, has yet to be felt, but downside risks from cooling demand remain in place. "The expected gradual and transitory upside drift on inflation of tariffs will be muted by weaker household demand." That could allow the Fed to resume rate cuts at its next meeting in September, he says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0356 ET - Oil prices fall in muted trading, with Brent crude down 0.3% at $65.91 a barrel and WTI down 0.4% at $62.92 a barrel. Brent prices have declined around 10% since the end of July, as President Trump's Aug. 8 deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine or face severe economic repercussions came and went without new U.S. penalties on purchases of Russian oil, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. Friday's meeting between Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin is unlikely to cause a significant shift in Russian oil supply in the event of a lasting peace deal or an escalation of tensions, and Indian imports of Russian oil remain resilient, Goldman says. U.S. oil supply is also beating both Goldman and market consensus expectations as efficiencies gains continue, despite a decline in prices, the analysts add. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0327 ET - Nvidia's H20 is becoming a trade bargaining chip between the U.S. and China, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. If China demonstrates strong demand for H20, that will likely give the U.S. an excuse to pressure China at the negotiation table, the analysts say. One of China's key demands is to lift export restrictions on semiconductor equipment, while U.S. focus is on access to rare earths, they say. Although China wants to support local chip suppliers and reduce dependence on U.S. tech, it's not realistic in the near term. "To support rapidly growing inference demand, Chinese companies are ready to adopt a wide range of chips, local and imports," the Jefferies analysts add. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0021 ET - China's exports will likely remain relatively resilient in the coming months and continue to support economic growth amid weak domestic demand, Julius Baer economist Sophie Altermatt writes in an email. China's exports have remained surprisingly robust despite U.S. tariffs, and its exports to other markets have more than offset the decline in shipments to the U.S., Altermatt says. Exports to Southeast Asian nations have seen the strongest year-over-year increase since the start of the year, followed by exports to the EU and African countries, the economist adds. Some trade flows between China and the U.S. are now flowing to, or at least through, other countries, Julius Baer says. Although exports have been strong in 1H, the economy may slow in the coming quarters due to domestic weakness. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

1335 ET - The U.S. government's decision to allow Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to ship their respective H20 and MI308 chips to China, in exchange for a cut of the sales, is a positive for both companies, BofA Securities analysts say in a note. The chipmakers have enough pricing power to offset some of the penalty, and can use some of their prior written-off inventory for gross profit recovery, the analysts say. Most importantly, the companies will get to engage with China's key AI ecosystem and keep competitors like Huawei in check, they say. But longer term, China may not be a source of durable upside, since it's unclear if the U.S. government approvals will continue next year and also that rapidly evolving AI landscape could reduce demand from certain China customers.(kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)

1324 ET - The large production of U.S. corn and soybeans expected this year is leading to a new question among traders: What will it mean if China doesn't start purchasing more U.S. grain exports? With the USDA reducing its outlook for planted acreage by 2.5 million acres, production is expected to fall back--but soybean inventories can still pile up without China being in the mix. "Can we export that many beans if China doesn't show up?" says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. The USDA decreased its projections for soybean exports by 40 million bushels, to 1.71 billion bushels. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 13, 2025 12:14 ET (16:14 GMT)

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