BlockBeats 消息，8 月 13 日，数周以来，投资者持续涌入互换合约、期权和直接做多美债的交易，押注的就是通胀放缓将允许美联储在未来数月内下调借贷成本。这一观点在周二获得初步验证：7 月通胀数据公布后，短期美债收益率应声下跌，而互换合约交易员将 9 月降息概率推高至 90%。
更引人注目的是，市场对美联储 9 月降息幅度超过 25 个基点的押注也在升温。交易员们当天向有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）相关头寸追加了约 200 万美元权利金，这类头寸将从超预期降息中获利。
“今日（周二）通胀数据虽比前几个月略强，但远低于许多人的担忧水平，”贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德尔（Rick Rieder）在研报中表示，“因此我们预计美联储将在 9 月启动降息，甚至存在降息 50 个基点的合理依据。”
此外，高盛交易和研究团队此前曾表示，市场低估了美联储 9 月份降息 50 个基点的可能性。（金十）
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.