海通国际研报指出，贵州茅台中期业绩稳健增长，核心产品结构优化驱动营收提升。2025年上半年公司实现营收893.9亿元，同比增长9.1%，归母净利润454.0亿元，同比增长8.9%，业绩符合预期。公司在行业调整期展现卓越经营韧性，通过控制飞天投放、强化价格管控、优化调货机制等组合拳，有效稳定市场预期。上半年务实调整为长期健康发展蓄力：产品端优化结构培育新增长极，渠道端减压去库夯实良性基础，市场端加速国际化打开成长空间。公司承诺三年分红率不低于75%，对应股息率近4%，配置价值凸显。该行预计公司2025-2027年EPS分别为75/83/92元（前值为76/84/93元），给予2025年26xPE，目标价维持1972元不变，维持“优于大市”评级。
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