金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，宝胜国际(03813)2025上半年实现收入/归母净利润91.6亿/1.9亿元人民币，同比分别下滑8.3%/ 44.1%，主要受线下客流拖累（同店销售下滑10-20%中段）。折扣压力下，毛利率同比下跌0.7个百分点至33.5%；叠加负经营杠杆，经营利润率下滑1.7个百分点至3.1%。尽管短期业绩承压，但该机构看到2季度运营端上有积极信号浮现，为后续复苏奠定基础：2季度折扣水平环比1季度改善低单位数，带动单季度毛利率回升；库存水平亦出现环比改善，体现出公司运营韧性。该机构认为，当前股价已充分反映业绩压力，超过8%的预期股息率亦提供了充分的股价下行保护。因此，基于2026年7倍的预期市盈率，该机构调整公司目标价至0.74港元，维持买入评级。不过，短期来看，行业竞争仍将激烈，下半年行业折扣或持续面临压力。考虑到公司上半年业绩和行业趋势，该机构下调公司2025-27年收入预测7%-8%至173-189亿元，对应公司2025下半年收入仍将处于下降区间（同比下降4.5%）。考虑到负经营杠杆效应，该机构同时下调未来三年净利润预测6%-24%至4.1-6.0亿元人民币。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.