BlockBeats News, August 20th. Delphi Digital Market Research Institute published an article stating that in the coming weeks, the US Treasury Department will begin replenishing its General Account (TGA), a process that will withdraw $500–600 billion in cash from the market over approximately two months. At first glance, this may seem ordinary, but the current period is evolving into one of the most fragile liquidity environments of the past decade.

In 2023, the $550 billion TGA replenishment was cushioned by over $2 trillion of Fed reverse repo tools, healthy bank reserves, and robust overseas bond demand. Now, these cushions are no longer in place. The Fed is still consuming liquidity through Quantitative Tightening (QT), reverse repos are nearly exhausted, banks are constrained by losses and capital rules, and overseas buyers from China to Japan have also exited. The result is that every dollar raised by the Treasury Department this fall will be directly extracted from active market liquidity.

High-beta tokens tend to amplify downward movements during liquidity tightening. If stablecoin supply contracts during the TGA replenishment period, ETH and other high-risk assets may experience larger declines compared to BTC unless there is structural inflow of funds from ETFs or corporate treasuries. In a low-liquidity environment, position management and capital rotation across risk curves are more critical than ever.

If stablecoin expansion coincides with TGA rising, the crypto market may be more resilient to absorb the impact compared to previous cycles; if stablecoins contract, liquidity extraction will transmit faster and more intensely.