高盛:预计美联储9月降息25个基点,五年期美债是降息前最佳交易选择

Blockbeats
Aug 19

BlockBeats 消息,8 月 19 日,高盛全球银行和市场首席策略师希夫林表示,在美联储可能降息的背景下,五年期美国国债是当前最具吸引力的交易选择。他指出,五年期国债收益率在 3%-4% 区间具有投资价值,同时能在市场风险上升时提供保护。

目前五年期美国国债收益率为 3.85%,较年初的 4.38% 显著下降。路透社调查显示,61% 的经济学家预期美联储将在 9 月会议上将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 4%-4.25% 区间。

高盛预计,考虑到实际国内生产总值增速放缓和失业率走高,美联储可能在 2025 年第四季度启动降息周期,并在 2026 年继续实施宽松政策,最终将政策利率调整至 3%-3.25% 水平。(金十)

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