瑞银：料第三季底HIBOR稳定在2%至2.5% 重申对香港商业地产风险持谨慎态度

智通财经

Aug 19, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，预计HIBOR将在第三季底稳定在2%至2.5%。该行重申对香港商业地产风险的谨慎态度，因为HIBOR反弹可能加剧银行在香港商业地产敞口的不良贷款风险，进一步增加拨备压力。在中短期(3至6个月)内，中银香港(02388)仍是该行所覆盖的本地香港银行首选，但预计短期内股价可能有所回落。该行对中银香港和东亚银行(00023)持“中性”评级，对恒生评级则为“沽售”。

该行最近将恒生评级从“中性”下调至“沽售”，原因是信贷成本上升以及2025年可能削减股息。该行认为中银香港短期内也面临下行风险，因其年内股价已上升52%，投资者可能获利了结，且即将公布的上半年业绩可能上调信贷成本指引。

瑞银指，虽然HIBOR反弹有利于银行的净息差和净利息收入，但认为市场已预期HIBOR在今年余下时间稳定在2%至2.5%。对于香港的银行，该行预计第三季净利息收入的压缩压力将高于第二季，因为第二季的负面影响仅持续约一个月，且随着利率上升，贷款需求可能再次疲软。该行认为在5至6月贷款余额增长2%后，增长势头能否持续仍需观察。对于2025年的预测，该行预计中银香港、恒生银行和东亚银行的净利息收入将分别下降7%、9%和11%。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02388\">中银香港</a>(02388)仍是该行所覆盖的本地香港银行首选，但预计短期内股价可能有所回落。该行对中银香港和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00023\">东亚银行</a>(00023)持“中性”评级，对恒生评级则为“沽售”。</p><p>该行最近将恒生评级从“中性”下调至“沽售”，原因是信贷成本上升以及2025年可能削减股息。该行认为中银香港短期内也面临下行风险，因其年内股价已上升52%，投资者可能获利了结，且即将公布的上半年业绩可能上调信贷成本指引。</p><p>瑞银指，虽然HIBOR反弹有利于银行的净息差和净利息收入，但认为市场已预期HIBOR在今年余下时间稳定在2%至2.5%。对于香港的银行，该行预计第三季净利息收入的压缩压力将高于第二季，因为第二季的负面影响仅持续约一个月，且随着利率上升，贷款需求可能再次疲软。该行认为在5至6月贷款余额增长2%后，增长势头能否持续仍需观察。对于2025年的预测，该行预计中银香港、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00011\">恒生银行</a>和东亚银行的净利息收入将分别下降7%、9%和11%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银：料第三季底HIBOR稳定在2%至2.5% 重申对香港商业地产风险持谨慎态度</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1331457.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0417516738.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc 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