金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，2025 年7月实物电商网上零售额调整后同比增8.3%。分品类看，通讯器材/家用电器仍保持较快增速，分别同比增15%/29%，化妆品增速转正，家装需求持续恢复下家具增21%。该机构指，反内卷规范行业健康发展：1）即时零售投入有利于拉动平台用户流量增长，并带动传统电商产生交叉销售。京东2季报数据显示活跃用户和购频同比增速均超40%。2）7月中旬市场监管总局对美团、京东、淘宝闪购/饿了么开展约谈，随后三大平台声明将合理补贴，促进行业规范健康发展。该机构认为如果平台以激进补贴策略获取市场份额的行为逐步降温，补贴回落至理性范围，将对利润改善带来正向影响。该机构续指，阿里CMR收入上调或可抵消闪购补贴投入，AI投资情绪回暖带动阿里云估值修复。京东外卖等新业务投入超预期造成整体利润率波动，零售表现稳健。快手关注可灵商业化推进。
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