穆迪分析指出，尽管日本二季度国内生产总值（GDP）初值或面临上修，但其经济仍陷于贸易前景黯淡与内需疲软的双重夹击之中。经济学家戴夫·齐亚表示，二季度GDP的短期增长难掩深层矛盾——关税及国际竞争挤压制造业利润，而国内消费与企业支出持续疲弱。

　　他指出，美国新启的15%进口关税将在下半年拖累出口及工业生产，预计对GDP增速的折损至少达0.5个百分点。齐亚强调，由于通胀持续跑赢薪资增速，叠加政府在重大投资项目上的迟滞导致企业投资难以启动，内需端亦难撑大局。分析认为，在此背景下日本央行或维持现行政策至2025年。

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