金吾财讯 | 珍酒李渡(06979)股价向好，截至发稿，报9.28港元，涨3.92%，成交额2.06亿港元。浙商证券表示，珍酒李渡作为业绩利空出尽且有现象级爆品的困境反转公司，中长期业绩有望超预期。该机构认为珍酒李渡作为底部向上的酱香型白酒龙头，短期新大单品“大珍”凭借模式创新+营销创新成为“现象级爆款”单品，或有望对业绩带来较大增量贡献；中长期看，25H1公司预计经调整净利润下滑39%-40%，或为此轮调整期低点，伴随“禁酒令”影响趋弱，大珍引领逆周期破局，业绩增速有望环比改善，26年或有望低基数下恢复增长，看好公司新品催化+底部改善下的投资机会。我们预计25-27年公司收入增速分别为-28.94%、29.51%、19.69%；归母净利润增速分别为-21.35%、43.03%、22.62%，EPS分别为0.31、0.44、0.54元；对应25/26年估值分别为26X/18X。考虑到大珍明后年有望迎放量，中长期业绩成长性高，当前估值具有性价比，上调至买入评级，给予推荐。
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