隔夜无重大新驱动，市场聚焦俄乌局势进展、OPEC+9月会议预期及美国劳工节后需求季节性拐点。美联储降息预期降温与欧美贸易协议未引发市场显著反应。
WTI 与Brent近月合约反弹，成交量收缩伴随空头减仓，移仓换月主导短期技术性波动。期现结构维持Contango但斜率平缓，裂解价差持稳体现需求韧性，但未形成强多头信号。
OPEC+9月会议预计暂停增产，但滞后性增产及高基准配额下，实际供应压力未减。俄乌地缘风险溢价部分修复，但未形成持续性供应中断预期。
北半球夏季出行高峰临近尾声，美国炼厂秋检将至，汽油消费拐点预计于9月初显现。当前需求仍处峰值但对支撑力度边际衰减。
全球原油及成品油库存仍处中高位，近月合约移仓换月中远月多头增仓暗示市场对远期结构偏向谨慎。
反弹主因技术性空头回补及季节性支撑，缺乏基本面实质利好。Q4供需转向宽松逻辑未改，上方空间受限。
逢高做空主力合约，关注OPEC会议结果与需求拐点确认后的做空时机；跨期策略可考虑空近月多远月反套。
风险提示：OPEC+超预期减产、地缘冲突升级、宏观避险情绪蔓延压制风险资产。
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