美联储传声筒:市场焦点转向年内是否二次降息,激进宽松仍被通胀阻拦

Blockbeats
Aug 24

BlockBeats 消息,8 月 24 日,《华尔街日报》著名记者、素有“美联储传声筒”之称的 Nick Timiraos 发表新文《鲍威尔降息信号反映经济微妙处境》表示,美联储主席鲍威尔正谨慎地为下个月降息铺路,但对期待激进宽松的人传递了微妙信息——不要指望大刀阔斧的行动。市场已基本定价 9 月降息,焦点正转向美联储是否会在今年最后两次会议(10 月和 12 月)考虑再次降息。

鲍威尔谨慎的语气反映了美联储面临的复杂经济动态:描述劳动力市场尽管失业率低,但呈现出“奇特”的疲软迹象,同时受关税驱动的价格上涨正开始影响经济。鲍威尔基本采纳了美联储理事沃勒的降息论点,沃勒上个月反对鲍威尔维持利率不变的决定并支持降息,此后大幅的就业数据修正证实了劳动力市场疲软的担忧。鲍威尔等待数据验证这一观点——这可能是说服持怀疑态度的同事的必要步骤。一些美联储理事认为降息的理由薄弱,因为通胀过高且劳动力市场风险被夸大。鲍威尔的演讲清楚表明,他仍在追求长期以来寻求的软着陆,但需要应对的复杂情况显著增加。问题在于,他的新策略能否让经济平稳着陆,既不失速也不冲出跑道。

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