招商宏观:国内PPI同比大概率已于今年6-7月触底

金融界
Aug 24, 2025
招商宏观报告称,若无反内卷,全球库存周期和油价也将推动PPI回升。作为最大的生产国,全球库存周期对中国PPI同比有较强的驱动性。在美欧财政扩张提振下,预计明年Q2全球进入被动去库、Q3全球进入主动补库存。考虑基数,明年Q2起油价对国内PPI至少是零贡献,甚至可能是正贡献。此外,国内PPI同比大概率已于今年6-7月触底。PPI同比虽已触底,但转正至少要到明年中后期,该变化本不足以影响当前市场风格。然而,反内卷令市场提前聚焦PPI转正前景并触发资产风格切换:哑铃型策略转向通胀和内需策略;顺周期资产获得确定性溢价、类债资产由过去三年的“蓄水池”变为“提款机”。

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