鲍威尔今夜演讲看点前瞻:能否奏响政策转向序曲,市场期待明确降息信号

Blockbeats
Aug 22, 2025

BlockBeats 消息,8 月 22 日,美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间今晚 10 点在杰克逊霍尔举行的堪萨斯城联储年度央行会议上发表演讲,市场预计的讲话重点如下:

降息路径:鲍威尔会否确认下月降息的预期将是本次发言的重中之重。目前多数机构预计鲍威尔将采取中性立场,不会给出明确信号并将继续强调依赖数据的决策方法,但市场仍对其反驳 9 月降息预期抱有担忧;

政策框架审查:美联储政策框架审查成为鲍威尔此次发言的关注焦点之一。多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能弱化 2020 年引入的弹性平均通胀目标 (FAIT),回归更传统的政策表述强调更均衡地兼顾就业与通胀目标;

通胀担忧:鲍威尔或承认 CPI 有所缓和,但仍高于目标,并回应 PPI 飙升的相关问题。他将继续表明应警惕服务业通胀粘性和关税带来的潜在压力,并强调稳定通胀预期的重要性,

劳动力市场:鲍威尔可能回应非农数据降温及大幅下修的问题,且可能承认就业市场降温和新增就业潜力下降,但或淡化单一劳动力数据的影响,强调需根据多项指标综合判断;

政治压力:鲍威尔大概率在发言过程对其面对的政治压力避而不谈,称其将专注于做好本职工作。特朗普已多次公开批评鲍威尔,联合政府官员向美联储不断施压,最近还要求立刻解雇美联储理事库克。(金十)

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