金吾财讯 | 中泰国际研报指，兖煤澳大利亚(03668)FY25中期业绩略为逊色。上半年收入及股东净利润分别下跌14.8%及61.2%至26.8亿及1.6亿元(澳元，下同)。销产比例由24H1的99.4%下跌至87.8%。基于季节性能源需求，叠加中国“反内卷”政策，该机构预计下半年煤炭价格环比反弹。根据最新资料，6月底至今，纽卡斯尔动力煤现货市场价上升1.2%。冶金煤表现更为明显，同期半软焦煤及低挥发喷吹煤市场价分别上涨11.5%及25.5%。该机构预计公司FY25全年煤炭售价同比降幅收窄，动力煤及冶金煤平均售价分别同比下跌7.1%及20.7%至149元/吨及219元/吨。煤炭销售方面，下半年天气因素影响预计消弭。该机构预计公司FY25全年权益煤炭销量同比上升1.3%至3,820万吨，销产比例达到97.2%。综合考虑FY25中期业绩及上述因素，该机构分别下调FY25-27股东净利润预测9.3%、8.0%、11.0%。该机构相应将目标价由38.55港元调整至34.70港元，对应22.9%上行空间及8.5倍FY25目标市盈率。重申“买入”评级。
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