Democrats are warning of a deepening registration slump after a New York Times analysis found the party lost ground to Republicans in every one of the 30 states that register voters by party between 2020 and 2024.
The net shift amounts to roughly 4.5 million voters toward the GOP, a gap strategists say could hinder Democratic prospects for years.
The erosion spans battlegrounds and blue bastions alike. Republicans improved their position in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, Democrats' advantage among active voters fell from more than 500,000 in 2020 to under 60,000 this summer.
Several data points highlight the risk for Democrats. In Nevada, the party saw one of the sharpest percentage-point declines in registration. In North Carolina, Republicans erased nearly all of Democrats' once-sizable edge. For the first time since 2018, more new voters registered as Republicans than Democrats in 2024.
Registration losses have been steepest among men and younger voters, groups that trended Republican in 2024.
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"I think it should be an alarm" for the party, Democratic strategist Eddie Vale told The Hill. "I think it's a real problem."
The registration picture helps explain GOP momentum following Donald Trump's 2024 victory and Republicans' control of both chambers of Congress.
Democrats are searching for ways to rebuild, with the likes of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) trying to rally the party with aggressive messaging and map fights aimed at countering Republican redistricting moves, drawing national attention and internal debate about tone and tactics.
Party operatives caution that registration is a lagging indicator and not destiny. A recent Gallup survey found Democrats regained a slight edge in party identification in the second quarter of 2025, even as other measures depict a closely divided nation. Still, for many Democrats, the trend line is flashing red.
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