Odaily星球日报讯 中信证券研报分析认为，鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 央行峰会上发言与我们此前预期相符，强调就业市场下行风险，延续 7 月议息会议中“关税通胀是一次性的”观点，为 9 月降息做铺垫。我们延续此前观点，预计美联储年内将连续降息三次，每次 25 bps。关于货币政策框架调整，美联储放弃平均通胀目标制，回归灵活通胀目标制，且修改措辞强调关注“双向”就业市场风险。资产方面，我们认为鲍威尔鸽派发言后，美股市场“降息交易”的主线重新明确，“补涨”的交易逻辑将主导接下来的美股市场。我们延续此前观点，认为类似于 2024 年 7 月“降息交易”中对利率敏感的罗素 2000、标普 500 房地产和纳指生物技术上涨的行情或将再度上演。美元指数和美债利率方面，市场对美联储年内降息预期与我们的观点仍有一定距离，我们预计美债利率和美元指数仍有小幅下行空间。非美权益方面，鲍威尔鸽派发言和较弱美元预计能提振全球权益市场风险偏好。黄金方面，降息预期提振利好金价，但需警惕俄乌可能达成协议带来的利空。（金十）
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