中金发表研究报告，维持对连连数字(02598.HK)的“跑赢行业”评级，考虑市场情绪改善，上调目标价3.3%至15.8港元。 研报指，连连数字1H25业绩符合预期，营业收入同比+27%至7.8亿元，净利润扭亏为盈至15.1亿元。报告期内，TPV同比+32%至2.1万亿元、高于收入增速的27%。毛利润同比+25%至4.1亿元、毛利率保持52%高位。考虑到TPV高增，中金上调25年/26年收入2%/2%至16.5/20.2亿元。 中金预计，未来2-3年TPV稳增、支付收入保持20%+增速、毛利率50%+、盈利提升；预计25年经常性经营利润近7000万元。公司在牌照合规(近期获批SFC三号牌可进行杠杆式外汇交易受规管活动)/技术创新/全球网络等优势显著，同时持续加强全球牌照布局和海外本地服务能力。此外，作为头部跨境支付服务商，连连数字显著受益于Web3支付、VATP牌照打开增长空间。
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