金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，领展房产基金(00823)发布了最新运营数据。考虑到组合最新的运营情况，该机构已更新预测。领展2026财年1季度的香港零售物业组合销售额同比降0.8%，略低于香港整体市场0.4%的增幅。该机构认为这主要是由于电商免运费服务对非必需消费品交易的影响。然而，该机构认为领展在2026财年1 季度仍保持了高零售物业出租率及办公楼出租率。公司最新发布的续约租金调整率预测为负中个位数，该机构认为这将导致2026财年收入小幅下降。公司预计近期 HIBOR / SORA / BBSY 的下降有助于降低融资成本。
该机构认为利率下调可部分缓解租金压力的影响。该机构分别小幅下调2026财年和2027财年的每单位派息预测约1.5%/2.9%，并引入2028财年的预测。同时，该机构认为最早可能在2025年9月的潜在降息以及沪深港通的潜在纳入将成为未来12个月的关键催化剂，其影响应大于租金调整预期变化的影响。有鉴于利率和折现率下调，该机构小幅上调目标价至49.80港元，维持买入评级。
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