瑞银研究报告指,将澳门2025年下半年博彩总收入(GGR)按年增长预测由7%上调至12%,对比今年上半年按年增长4%。该行认为,澳门的博彩市场格局正在转变,酒店客房增长不再是市场份额增长的主要推动因素,关键因素已变成赌台分布、高端产品及服务等,并料中低端中场业务持续受到内地旅游竞争及中国宏观环境的挑战。
随着博彩市场持续高端化,该行预期高端博企如永利澳门(01128.HK) 及美高梅中国(02282.HK) 将能维持或扩大市场份额,其相较于大型博企的估值折让将会收窄。该行料永利澳门今年第三季中场市场份额达12.2%(较原预测升0.5个百分点),估美高梅中国今年第三季中场市场份额达16.4%(较原预测升0.7个百分点)。该行料金沙中国(01928.HK) 及银娱(00027.HK) 国今年第三季中场市场份额各为24.5%(较原预测跌0.2个百分点)及19.5%(较原预测跌0.1个百分点)
该行将永利澳门评级由“中性”上调至“买入”,目标价由6.1元升至8.4元,相当预测明年企业价值对EBITDA的9.5倍;维持对美高梅中国“买入”评级,目标价由15.9元升至19.8元,相当预测明年企业价值对EBITDA的9.5倍。
瑞银维持金沙中国“中性”评级,目标价由17.8元升至21.6元,相当预测明年企业价值对EBITDA的11.5倍;维持银娱“买入”评级,目标价由43.9元升至46.9元,相当预测明年企业价值对EBITDA的11.7倍。(ss/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-08-25 16:25。)
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