中信证券:关注低估值油轮龙头,多因素提振货盘需求

金融界
Aug 25
中信证券研报称,根据Clarksons数据,2025年8月24日当周VLCC TCE环比增长31.7%至45800美元/天,其中VLCC TD3CTCE 环比增长15.7%。VLCC运价自8月初以来连续环比三周高增长,且同比增速转正。我们认为淡季的运价环比持续改善反映供给端紧张程度和OPEC+增产的效果逐步显现,旺季临近有望进一步提振。OPEC+计划9月增产54.7万桶/天,提前一年完成原定计划,有望推动VLCC货盘数量显著增加,与旺季需求形成共振。供给端,被制裁运力增加叠加老龄化加速带来的效率损失,未来黑市和灰市贸易窗口若进一步缩窄,有望加速老旧船舶的出清,将加剧供给端强约束。总体来看,短期OPEC+增产效果持续传导至货盘需求,中期关注伊朗原油出口变化对合规需求影响。

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