分析：以太坊新高彰显市场动能转向，市场杠杆激增引发牛尾隐忧

链捕手

Aug 27

ChainCatcher 消息，K33 研究主管 Vetle Lunde 分析指出，一名长期持有者将 22400 枚 BTC 兑换成 ETH，推动以太坊上周创下历史新高，反映出市场动能正在转向。但比特币近期疲软走势可能延续，杠杆率飙升及资金向以太坊轮动使其短期承压。

数据显示，比特币永续合约名义未平仓量升至两年高位，超过 31 万枚 BTC（约合 340 亿美元），过去两个月增加 41607 枚 BTC，其中上周末激增 13472 枚 BTC，或标志着潜在转折点。比特币年化资金费率从 3% 跃升至近 11%，表明在价格横盘期间多头仓位愈发激进。

Lunde 认为，当前形势类似 2023 年和 2024 年夏季的杠杆积累期，两次均在 8 月引发剧烈清算。此次未平仓量高峰出现在月末较晚时段，暗示市场可能进入更长盘整期，抄底资金或被套牢。

Lunde 警告："短期多单挤压风险较高，建议在市场清理过剩杠杆前保持保守仓位。"他指出，历史上以太坊创新高往往预示加密市场整体见顶，2017 年和 2021 年周期均呈现类似模式：以太坊突破、山寨币暴涨、比特币因需求减弱停滞，引发牛市尾声担忧。

当前 BTC 市场主导率仍达 58.6%，远高于此前高峰期的不足 40%。随着以太坊相对强势确立，交易员正密切关注本轮周期是否会重演历史轨迹。

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