金吾财讯 | 中金公司提出，中国猪业已步入新范式：猪价、增长、投资新范式。该机构认为传统猪周期规律逐步失效，“振幅收敛、长度缩短、波动下降”特征强化，源自后非瘟时代规模化快速提升及固定资产冗余背景下产业分工重塑，近期“反内卷”监管政策调控强化了这一特征。
该机构指，核心龙头内生增长动能、分红能力更强，价值属性凸显。1）产业视角：龙头猪企开启超额成长，小猪企弹性减弱。由于超高和超低猪价均难再现，且周期长度缩短，低成本、大体量猪企仍能凭借内生动能超额增长，而小猪企跨越式成长窗口接近关闭。2）投资视角：周期思维向周期与价值思维兼顾切换。该机构认为产能去化、价格反转、以量补价的传统“三段论”周期思维逐步弱化，当前需兼顾周期思维及价值思维；成长视角，龙头远期出栏兑现度更强及成本领先，带来预期P/E估值更低；价值视角，龙头自由现金流回报提升、分红能力增强，进而推动估值中枢上移。该机构认为，中国猪业范式革新、强者更强。
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