金吾财讯 | 李宁(02331)股价早盘拉高,截至发稿,涨4.67%,报20.62港元,成交额4.48亿港元。李宁25H1实现收入148.2亿元/yoy+3.3%、归母净利17.4亿元/yoy-11.0%,收入稳健增长,利润下滑主因有效税率提升及资产减值影响。中期派息33.59分/股,派息率约50%。东吴证券研报指出,分渠道看,25H1电商/特许经销商/直营零售收入分别同比+7.4%/+4.4%/-3.4%。电商渠道通过优化平台运营及深化线上营销,贡献最大增量;批发收入小幅增长主要来自专业渠道销售带动,截至25H1末批发门店同比+77家至4821家;直营受店铺结构优化调整影响收入下降,截至25H1末直营门店同比-217家至1278家;分产品看,25H1鞋类/服装/器材及配件收入分别同比+4.9%/-3.4%/+23.7%。鞋类业务保持增长,三大核心跑鞋IP“超轻”、“赤兔”、“飞电”期内销量突破526万双;服装销售相对疲软。该机构维持25-27年归母净利润预测值23.13/25.98/29.26亿元,对应PE分别为20/18/16X,公司经营基本盘稳固,渠道库存趋于健康,未来随奥运主题营销催化有望释放业绩弹性,维持“买入”评级。野村报告指出,李宁上半年主要数据超出市场预期。中期收入按年增3%至148亿元人民币(下同),较预期高出2%。尽管毛利率及净利率按年减0.4个百分点及1.9个百分点,至50%及11.7%,但净利为17亿元,按年减11%,仍较预期高出4%。该行将目标价从16.2港元上调28%至20.7港元,维持“中性”评级。
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