S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) travel stock Web Travel Group Ltd (ASX: WEB) hasn't had the best of years.

Amid broader headwinds battering the travel industry – including ongoing global conflicts, cautious consumers, and US tariff uncertainties – Web Travel shares have sunk 46.3% over the past 12 months.

In early afternoon trade today, shares are up a welcome 1.8%, changing hands for $4.42 apiece.

And according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), today's gains could be just the tip of the iceberg for Web Travel shares in the year ahead.

Here's why.

ASX 200 travel stock eyeing strong growth

As you're likely aware, Web Travel spun off its online travel agency business, Webjet Group (ASX: WJL), on 30 September last year. That left the ASX 200 travel stock to focus on its B2B travel business, WebBeds.

At yesterday's company annual general meeting (AGM), management said its WebBeds business is on track for a record year of earnings in FY 2026.

Web Travel reported that its total transaction value (TTV) is on track to be at least $3.1 billion in H1 FY 2026, up 19.2% from the first half of FY 2025.

And the ASX 200 travel stock expects its full year FY 2026 margins to be at least 6.5%, down from 6.7% in FY 2025. The company said the margin compression reflects the sale of the DMC business in March, as well as portfolio mix changes.

"WebBeds continues to outperform its peers," Web Travel managing director John Guscic said at Tuesday's AGM.

Addressing some recent headwinds, Guscic added:

For a two-week period in June, we saw a material increase in cancellations globally due to the Israel-Iran conflict. Trading has since picked up in other regions, however the Middle East continues to see ongoing weakness.

Looking to the 2026 financial year, he concluded, "WebBeds continues to gain market share, TTV margins remain stable, and we are on track to deliver record EBITDA in FY26."

Why Macquarie expects a big rebound for Web Travel shares

Following yesterday's AGM, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on the ASX 200 travel stock.

The broker noted:

We expect WEB will continue to scale TTV and are increasingly confident it will reach its $10bn FY30 target. Visibility concerning medium-term revenue and UEBITDA [underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] margins has improved.

WEB should outperform other ASX travel peers in volatile macro conditions.

Macquarie increased its 12-month target price for the ASX 200 travel stock by 9% to $6.74 (from $6.19 previously).

That represents a potential upside of 52.5% from the current Web Travel share price.