本周初油价在美联储降息预期升温、俄石油设施频繁遇袭的背景下小幅反弹，但当前所处基本面背景仍在于终端弱需求及OPEC+加速增产带来的过剩压力，今日大幅下跌主要是在反弹至压力位后空头情绪的再次释放。SC原油跌幅大于外盘，一定程度也反映了国内商业库存、港口库存及交割库库存偏高的区域性库存压力，后期主营炼厂即将进入检修，终端弱需求且柴油库存持续累积后国内市场基本面仍然偏空。后市来看，在供应端未有实质性减量预期的情形下，油价及内外盘价差仍以震荡偏弱看待。
风险因素：中东军事冲突，关税政策，OPEC+产量政策。
（文章来源：中信期货）
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