MW Customers are rushing to coffee shops like Starbucks and Dunkin' thanks to the pumpkin-spice latte 'halo effect'

By Charles Passy

Starbucks sees foot traffic spike 24% thanks to PSLs, and even McDonald's has a fall menu now. 'It's great just to get people in the door,' analysts say.

Starbucks has rolled out its fall menu, including the iconic pumpkin-spice latte, and chains like Dunkin' and McDonald's stand to cash in on the seasonal flavor wave, too.

If you've visited a Starbucks in recent days, you've probably had plenty of company.

It's the start of pumpkin-spice latte season - or more broadly, the time of year that the coffee-centric chain introduces its fall menu, which includes not just the PSL but also a variety of seasonal items. That translates into heavy foot traffic that extends for days and weeks, a phenomenon that some have even called the PSL "halo effect."

As restaurant-industry experts and professionals note, it also extends to just about every other coffee chain, from major names like Dunkin', which rolled out its fall menu earlier this month, to regional establishments.

McDonald's $(MCD)$ has also gotten into the game: It introduced its McCafe Pumpkin Spice Latte and a Pumpkin & Crème Pie on Friday.

Data from Placer.ai, a company that specializes in location analytics, shows just how dramatic the pumpkin-spice effect can be. When Starbucks rolled out the PSL nationally last year, foot traffic increased by 24.1% versus the average comparable weekday (in this case, a Thursday).

In some states, the figure was much higher: Traffic increased by 45.5% at North Dakota locations and by 42.6% at Kansas ones.

Moreover, the traffic spike at Starbucks continued nationally in the three days that followed - in the range of 11.3% to 15.9%, depending upon the day.

Placer.ai didn't share 2024 data for Dunkin', but it previously noted the chain had also seen traffic spikes connected to the introduction of its fall menu. For example, in 2021, foot traffic increased by 12.2% in the first four days of the fall rollout, compared with the previous three weeks.

A Starbucks spokesperson didn't comment on the company's foot traffic, but said the PSL is the company's "most popular seasonal beverage of all time." Dunkin' didn't provide details about traffic, either.

Veteran restaurant-industry analyst Mark Kalinowski isn't surprised that coffee chains are seeing the late-August increase. Starbucks' introduction of the pumpkin-spice latte more than 20 years ago changed the game such that consumers started to crave something hot to mark the seasonal shift.

In short, the start of pumpkin-spice season "is a good reminder that it's not 90 degrees outside anymore," Kalinowski said.

Kalinowski added that consumers may not order a pumpkin-spice latte and opt instead for a different seasonal beverage. Or they may order something in addition to the latte. But either way, it speaks to the halo effect.

"We're now being asked, 'What else have you got?'"Marco Suarez, owner of the Methodical Coffee chain in South Carolina

Marco Suarez, owner of Methodical Coffee, a South Carolina-based chain, said foot traffic definitely increases at his stores connected to the start of pumpkin spice season. But he agreed that it's not just about the signature seasonal drink.

"It's funny how we're now being asked, 'What else have you got?'" he said, noting they're adding apple, cinnamon and maple-flavored food and beverage items.

That's a point also noted by R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research for Placer.ai. He said coffee chains are leveraging pumpkin spice season to sell just about anything and everything.

"It's great just to get people in the door," Hottovy said.

-Charles Passy

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 29, 2025 17:01 ET (21:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.