9月非农会再来一次“大幅下修”,打开“50基点降息”大门吗?

华尔街见闻
Aug 30, 2025

美国就业数据可能又要“打脸式”大幅下修,为9月降息50基点铺路。 9月9日,美国劳工部(BLS)将公布非农就业数据的年度基准修正。高盛、渣打银行等根据数据推演,这可能会是一场高达55万—80万个岗位的大幅“就业打假”,这将直接冲击市场对美国劳动力市场的信心,也可能迫使美联储像去年9月一样,进行一次50个基点的大幅降息。 数据大幅下修的主要原因有二。一是出生-死亡模型失真,该模型高估了新企业创造的...

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