金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，7月北半球出行与发电需求对油价形成支撑，实际原油市场的紧张程度或高于IEA供需平衡测算显示的庞大过剩，叠加美国和欧盟对俄罗斯实施新一轮制裁，油价维持相对高位震荡。8月以来，OPEC+宣布继续大幅上调9月产量目标54.7万桶/天，同时为阿联酋额外增加了30万桶/天的配额，叠加市场对制裁引发的潜在供应风险担忧消退，以及近期印度石油需求增速放缓，油价逐步回落，8月20日WTI/Brent期货价格较7月末下跌9.5%/7.8%至62.71/66.84美元/桶。考虑全球新能源替代稳步推进，叠加OPEC集团协同意愿显著趋弱，以及南美、非洲等低成本增量集中释放，该机构维持25-26年布伦特原油均价预测为68/62美元/桶；同时结合北半球传统淡旺季因素分析，该机构预测25Q3-25Q4布伦特均价分别为68/63美元/桶。长期而言，该机构认为产油国“利重于量”诉求未改，OPEC+在短期牺牲价格以争取市场份额后，再平衡压力有望推动新一轮协同达成，叠加北美页岩油成本影响，60美元/桶的布伦特油价中枢在南美供应力量话语权大幅增强、全球能源转型提速之前仍有望得到长期支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源寡头，或将具有配置机遇。
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