【券商聚焦】招银国际维持理想汽车(02015)“买入”评级预计i6定价将较其他车型更激进

金吾财讯

Aug 29

金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，理想汽车(02015)2Q25收入同比下降4.5%至人民币302亿元，较该机构预测低2%，毛利率20.1%，基本符合预期。销管研三项费用合计超出该机构预测约1.3亿元，2Q25净利润同比下滑1%至11亿元，比该机构的预测低21%。该机构维持此前判断，预计i6定价将较其他车型更激进，这对提升理想在纯电动市场的品牌认知及销量至关重要，该举措有望成为股价催化剂。同时，该机构预测i6毛利率将低于L6车型。参照3Q24时期L6销量爬坡对总销量的提振效应，随着9月上市的i6发力，公司销量有望自4Q25重获增长动能。该机构的测算显示，4Q25规模效应提升可抵消i6定价策略对毛利率的拖累。管理层在业绩会上明确表示，自2026年起将缩短现款车型迭代周期，后续产品线将回归理想ONE及L9时期的单一车型策略，此举有望助公司重夺市场份额。该机构预计2025-27年销量分别为44万台/63万台/82万台，对应毛利率19.7%/18.7%/18.7%，净利润分别为40亿元/92亿元/141亿元。维持“买入”评级，将美股/港股目标价分别下调至28美元/109港元，基于15x FY27E P/E（前值：33美元/131港元，基于17x FY26E P/E）。

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