作者：于博 刘承昊核心观点1、中观视角下，反内卷预计将以“技术性稳价”为主轴，在年内落地。各部委在需求侧政策力度有限的环境下，将寻找阻力最小的方式，实现三个目标：PPI同比止跌、CPI同比正增、典型新兴产业提出产能治理方案。2、通过测算和梳理，我们认为，三项目标的实现在技术上均可行，但路径预计与反内卷的宏观目标有所差异：1）提振PPI的抓手预计是传统大宗价格；2）稳CPI预计主要看短期猪价；3）...
Source Link作者：于博 刘承昊核心观点1、中观视角下，反内卷预计将以“技术性稳价”为主轴，在年内落地。各部委在需求侧政策力度有限的环境下，将寻找阻力最小的方式，实现三个目标：PPI同比止跌、CPI同比正增、典型新兴产业提出产能治理方案。2、通过测算和梳理，我们认为，三项目标的实现在技术上均可行，但路径预计与反内卷的宏观目标有所差异：1）提振PPI的抓手预计是传统大宗价格；2）稳CPI预计主要看短期猪价；3）...
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