BlockBeats 消息,9 月 1 日,本周五美国将公布 8 月季调后非农就业人口。《华尔街日报》对顶级经济学家的调查显示,上月新增就业岗位预计仅为 7.5 万个,失业率可能从 4.2% 升至 4.3%,达到近四年高点。
美国联合银行首席经济学家 Bill Adams 表示,对金融市场而言,最好的情况是即将出炉的就业报告显示就业人数温和增长,失业率小幅上升。这将表明经济并未陷入衰退,但也表明劳动力市场有足够的疲软,足以证明美联储降息是合理的。
另一方面,最糟糕的情况是,就业报告显示就业人数下降,劳动力参与率下降,失业率下降。这将意味着劳动力供给下降,同时劳动力需求也在减弱,这可能是美联储无法应对的问题。
随着美联储 9 月份很可能降息,投资者将重新开始努力判断何时“坏消息是好消息”,何时“坏消息就是坏消息”。也就是说,疲软的经济数据何时会给美联储提供进一步降息的空间(利好股市),而疲软的经济数据何时会引发增长恐慌(利空股市)?这可能归结为美联储为什么要降息,以及降息后会发生什么。(金十)
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