华源证券研报指出，圆通速递上半年归母净利润18.31亿元，同比-7.90%；2025Q2归母净利润9.74亿元，同比-6.76%，其中快递净利润10.38亿元，同比-9.07%。Q2业务量增速亮眼，份额保持提升，资本开支增长匹配其竞争实力。公司坚持积极的竞争策略，依靠综合服务能力，业务量增速在“通达系”中表现突出。25H1公司资本开支44.3亿元，同比+64%，产能投放增速较快，匹配不断增长的实力和相对积极的竞争策略。公司除了在传统的车辆、中心投入资产优化成本之外，也在推动智多星（“YTO-GPT”）等“AI+”工具的全网应用，通过实现AI助手、智慧路由、数字孪生、智能客服等功能，公司积极推动全网一体数字化、标准化落地见效，提升加盟网络经营管理效能，增强全网综合竞争力。展望全年，行业“反内卷”逐步全国铺开，圆通作为行业龙头公司有望大幅受益。维持“买入”评级。
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