【券商聚焦】交银国际维持碧桂园服务(06098)买入评级 惟料其毛利率仍有小幅下行空间

金吾财讯
Sep 02

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,碧桂园服务(06098)上半年业绩符合预期,收入同比增长10.2%至231.9亿元,整体毛利率下滑2.7个百分点至18.5%,受毛利率下跌影响,核心净利润同比减少14.8%至15.7亿元,但仍大致符合该机构预期。收入占比最高的物业管理及三供一业服务规模上升,收入分别同比上升6.7%/51.6%至136.1/50.7亿元。该机构看见占比较大之基础物业管理服务(2025/2024上半年:22.9%/21.8%)以及三供一业(2025/2024上半年:9.7%/7.9%)的毛利率跌幅少于整体,该机构预计公司2025年整体毛利率同比下跌约1个百分点至约18-19%,并会在2026-27年稳定在约18%。公司计划大幅提升2025年派息率,以核心净利润的60%进行派息,较2024年上升27个百分点,该机构预测25-27年股息率有望达到~9%。该机构认为毛利率未来2-3年慢慢稳定下来前,仍有小幅下行空间,因此轻微下调2025-27年盈利预测约6-10%。但鉴于公司:1)第三方收入占比领先行业,业务收入多元化,对关联方依赖较小,有助减轻毛利率下行情况;2)持有大量净现金以支持高派息及股份回购增厚股东回报;3)规模有序增长以支持中长期利润回升,该机构维持买入评级。基于调整后2025年每股盈利预测及扣除净现金后3倍2025年市盈率,该机构上调目标价至9.54港元(原8.36港元),相信其大量的净现金有助降低股价进一步下行风险。维持买入评级。

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