【券商聚焦】国泰海通证券维持名创优品(09896)“增持”评级指公司战略机遇期助力双击

金吾财讯

Sep 04, 2025

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通证券研报指，名创优品(09896)处于战略变革与业绩改善共振阶段，国内海外同店皆改善，恢复经开店且质量提升，海外比预期更乐观，TOPTOY高增长提振空间。该机构指，公司围绕自有IP战略核心能力补强，再迎战略变革与估值共振期。①名创此前是规模和效率驱动。②为了配合自有IP战略，需要在情绪感知、IP运营、文化创造维度进一步提升能力。③名创优品发展历史上经历三个战略阶段：1）连锁开店红利期：凭借供应链优势对单体杂货店替代。2）IP战略升级：IP品类结构调整带来毛利率水平明显提升。3）出海红利期：向空间更大、客单价更高，竞争格局更好的海外市场加速发展。历次战略变革均带来基本面与估值共振。该机构上调公司2025-27年经调整归母净利润至30.22/35.15/41.80（+1.08/+0.26/+0.40）亿元人民币。考虑公司国内及海外经营数据及开店均环比明显改善，TOPTOY进入高速增长期贡献增量空间，且大店、IP、海外战略持续升级并在数据端兑现，给予2026年20xPE估值，目标市值为703亿元人民币，以1HKD=0.9129CNY汇率计算，上调目标价至61.96元港币，维持“增持”评级。

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