金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指，受8月国家发改委等四部委联合发布《关于规范招商引资行为有关政策落实事项的通知》（简称“770号文”）的影响，政策不确定性下原本依赖政策优惠获取低成本废铜原料的企业开始减产，导致阳极板供应紧张，SMM预计9月不用铜精矿（废铜或阳极板）冶炼厂的开工率为59.9%环比-8.3pct，且废铜供应紧张加剧或持续到年底。此外，SMM统计9月国内将有5家冶炼厂有检修计划，涉及粗炼产能100万吨；10月有检修计划的冶炼厂将达6家。受原料短缺与计划检修的双重影响，预计9月国内精铜产量预计将减少，10月精铜产量也或将继续走低。需求方面“金九银十”传统旺季开启，下游订单有望逐渐回暖，铜消费有望环比提升。在供应与需求的共振作用下，国内精铜月度供需缺口或将打开，国内社会库存有望在目前21.78万吨的历史低位基础上加速去库，叠加9月美联储的降息预期，或将催化铜价走强上涨。
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