金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，鑫椤锂电发布锂电产业链9月预排产，样本企业中电池排产124.8GWh，环比+7.4%，正极15.0万吨，环比+6.4%，负极15.2万吨，环比+8.2%，隔膜16.4亿平，环比+7.6%，电解液9.7万吨，环比+6.6%，整体环比提升，主要系国内商用车电动化渗透率提升带来需求持续增长，国内大储需求向好，美国储能下半年迎来抢装，锂电产业链行业景气度持续向上。反内卷大基调下，该机构预计电池及材料环节后续降价空间有限，叠加旺季下产能利用率提升，该机构看好锂电材料环节Q3盈利改善。该机构提到，需求方面，25年以来国内新能源乘用车销量向好，商用车电动化渗透率提升速度快，贡献重要增量，欧洲新能源车今年销量有望维持同比20%以上增长，国内储能盈利模式逐步完善，各地出台“136号文”承接政策，后续需求向好，欧美大储装机保持较高增长。供给方面，电池及材料环节新增产能释放已显著放缓，该机构预计锂电产业链各环节产能利用率或持续提升，电池及材料环节盈利能力有望持续改善，实现量利齐升。
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