By Doug Busch
September is historically a tough month for stocks. That might be the case again this year, at least for tech stocks.
Technical signals indicate that the sector could be headed toward a slowdown this month, after powering the broader market for much of this year. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 10-year Treasuries, and gold look resilient, offering investors another place to camp out.
For a pulse check on the tech sector, look to the Invesco QQQ Trust, which looks to be growing more fragile beneath the surface. On Tuesday, QQQ sliced below its 50-day simple moving average of 563 for the first time since February. While there's no sign of any potential disasters, it's possible that QQQ drops this September to a gap fill near 535, from the June 23 session. Such a move would be a retest of the cup-with-handle breakout forged earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average looks less industrial than ever. Recent committee decisions have steadily trimmed "dead weight" exposure in favor of modern market muscle, including high-profile additions like Goldman Sachs, Apple, Nvidia, and Visa. This fresher version of the blue-chip index could defeat the September odds.
On the one-year chart, the Dow is staunchly defending its bullish stance, holding above the inverse head-and-shoulders pivot at 45,000 set on Aug. 22 -- powered by a decisive 2% surge that day. With the wind at its back, the index could be eyeing a run toward the round 52,000 mark in the first half of 2026, a move that would reinforce the new era of leadership and highlight just how much the Dow has evolved.
Interest rates remain a central focus as they influence everything from mortgages to small-cap equities. The near-term outlook for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note suggests some volatility, but I still see potential for a year-end rally.
Since the doji candle on Jan. 14, which is adept at signaling changes from the prevailing direction, the 10-year yield has been in a downtrend and recently broke below a symmetrical triangle pattern. This breakdown suggests the 10-year yield could test 3.75% in early 2026, a move that would have meaningful implications for the overall market and consumers. The 10-year yield traded at 4.284% Tuesday afternoon.
Gold also continues to show resilience, possibly signaling a coming market event. On Tuesday, SPDR Gold Shares decisively broke above a bullish ascending triangle trigger at 318, after consolidating for the past four months.
Whether viewed as portfolio insurance or a prescient warning of broader market turmoil, the precious metal's price action demands attention. Historically, September has been the stock market's weakest month, adding weight to gold's appeal as a must-have hedge. My target for SPDR Gold Shares is around 350 in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a potential surge in safe-haven demand.
Looking overseas, the Global X DAX Germany exchange-traded fund is flashing a bearish warning with a classic head and shoulders pattern unfolding since May. The key support level near 43, tested multiple times this summer, is now under threat, and a decisive break below could trigger a slide toward the round 40 number. Given Germany's role as the powerhouse of Europe, such a downturn could ripple through other regional markets that have outperformed U.S. indexes so far this year.
Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com
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September 02, 2025 15:36 ET (19:36 GMT)
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