Gold is breaking all price records and historical correlations as September rolls in, with the price of the bullion jumping above $3,500 per ounce for the first time ever, thrilling investors who piled in amid protection from inflation and economic uncertainty.
But before raising the stake on gold ahead of what is historically a bumpy month for equities, investors might want to take a closer look at gold's own seasonal curse.
September, it turns out, hasn't been kind to the yellow metal either.
It's no secret that September tends to be a rough month for U.S. stocks. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has posted average September losses of 0.98% over the past 20 years, 0.96% over 30 years and 1.04% over the last four decades.
More recently, the S&P 500 has ended higher in just one of the past five Septembers, with an average monthly decline of 1.4%.
Despite its reputation as a safe-haven asset during market stress, gold also has a poor track record in September.
Over the past decade, the metal has ended the month in the red eight times. That's a win rate of just 20%, making it by far the worst-performing month for bullion in the last 10 years.
Even more telling, the average September return over this period is a painful 1.81%. And while gold posted a healthy 5.2% gain in September 2024, that was the exception. The seven Septembers before that were all losses.
Widening the scope to the last 20 years, gold's track record improves slightly, but not enough to ignore the trend. In that broader timeframe, gold averaged a -0.3% return in September and fell 60% of the time.
When gold has entered September with strong year-to-date gains—specifically double-digit ones—it hasn't fared much better.
Out of seven years where gold had posted a double-digit return by the end of August, September followed with losses in four of them, averaging a 1.73% drop.
This year fits that pattern. Gold was up 31% year-to-date through the end of August 2025, a performance driven by central bank buying, strong ETF inflows and escalating global uncertainty.
But those same explosive moves could set the stage for a September cool-down.
This seasonal slump is even more pronounced following big August rallies.
In years when gold has posted gains of more than 4% in August, September has historically been a hangover month. Out of six such cases, four ended with gold in the red. What was the average loss during those down Septembers? A hefty -2.1%.
In August 2025, gold surged 4.77%, capping off a historic summer run. But if history holds, traders should brace for potential disappointment this month.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, and some argue that gold’s price action this year has broken with multiple historical norms.
But, with seasonality data stacking up against gold and investor sentiment riding high, the risk of a short-term correction in September should not be dismissed.
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