桥水达利欧:美债务心脏病三年内发作,资金正从美债流向黄金

格隆汇
Sep 02, 2025

桥水基金创始人达利欧(Ray Dalio)认为,多年的巨额赤字和不可持续的债务增长,已将美国经济推向债务危机的边缘;新预算案料将导致巨大的过度支出,这可能在不久的将来引发债务心脏病发作,大概3年,误差一、两年。

达利欧在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示,贫富差距、价值观鸿沟和信任崩溃导致美国政策更加极端,现在在政治和社会上发生的状况,与1930至40年代世界各地发生的情况类似。

他指出,政治上被削弱的中央银行,将削弱人们对美联储捍卫货币价值的信心,也将降低持有美元计价债务资产的吸引力。达利欧称,美国预算失衡将迫使大规模发行新债,但债务需求不太可能跟上供应。随着市场开始怀疑美国财政信誉,美联储将面临严峻选择,要么允许利率上升,引发债务违约危机,要么印钞票,购买别人不会买的债务。然而,两者都会伤害美元。他补充说,国际投资者已开始将资金从美国国债转移至黄金

责任编辑:山上

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