金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，华润饮料(02460)1H25收入同比降18.5%，净利润同比降29% 与业绩盈警一致，远低于此前市场预期，主要由于水业务受消费情绪、竞争以及深度渠道改革影响收入同比降23%，饮料业务量增价减带来收入增速放缓（+21%）。由于2H基数较低，且公司表示7-8月销售实现正增长，该机构预计全年收入降幅有所收窄。公司产能扩张有序进行，但积极效果受销售影响未同步释放，渠道深度改革进行中，或于26年完成，因此该机构预计二者的协同效益将在 2026 财年及以后逐步释放。该机构下调目标价41%至12.85港元， 以反映短期业绩压力。新目标价对应18x的2026E P/E，由于该机构认为2026年将是公司重大经营变革影响逐步出清转向稳态经营的年份。同时公司作为央企其经营计划会纳入十五五规划，该机构认为在新发展阶段前出清业绩拖累因素具有合理性，维持 “买入” 评级。
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