汇丰全球外汇研究主管保罗·麦凯尔最新研判显示，随着美联储降息周期临近叠加货币政策政治化疑虑，美元可能面临新一轮贬值压力。他指出，逊于预期的非农就业数据意味着美国就业市场正从温和降温转向实质性恶化，这可能迫使美联储加快降息步伐。

　　值得注意的是，全球政经格局的动荡为美元提供托底支撑。麦凯尔特别提及日本首相石破茂闪电辞职引发的政策真空期，以及法国总理巴育政府濒临倒阁可能触发提前大选等风险事件，认为这两大经济体的政治不确定性将部分抵消美元贬值动能。

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