BlockBeats 消息，9 月 7 日，随着美联储 9 月降息几乎已成定局，期权交易员普遍预期股市将在周四 CPI 数据公布前平稳运行。但若数据显示通胀升温，这种押注可能暗藏风险。市场预期降息的逻辑十分简单：美国就业增长停滞，经济需要刺激。周五疲软的就业数据进一步强化了这种预期，促使投资者完全消化了下周美联储降息 25 个基点的预期。市场对此反应平淡：美股周五小幅下跌，恐慌指数略有上升，但仍远低于关键的 20 水平，自 6 月以来大多维持在此之下。
展望未来，期权交易员押注标普 500 指数将在周四 CPI 公布后出现约 0.7% 的双向波动，低于过去一年 1% 的平均实际波动幅度。然而，这种交易逻辑忽略了一个主要风险：如果通胀数据大幅超预期怎么办？“目前的平衡非常微妙，”Comerica 财富管理首席投资官 Eric Teal 表示，“任何非常积极或非常负面的数据都可能改变市场前景。”
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