荷兰国际:日本加息前景仍存不确定性 维持10月加息预期

格隆汇
Sep 08
荷兰国际集团(ING)的Min Joo Kang表示,日本最新GDP数据显示工资增长和家庭支出将继续推动经济,但这并不意味着日本央行一定会加息。第二季度经济经受住了美国关税的冲击,但ING预计未来将出现收缩,因为出口前置效应减弱,同时更严格的建筑施工规定抑制了住宅投资。分析师表示:“我们现在预计第三季度经济将萎缩0.3%,此前预期为萎缩0.1%。” 石破茂辞职同样增加了宏观政策风险。尽管如此,得益于私人消费的强劲表现,加上工资增长和通胀缓解提振消费者购买力,经济可能避免陷入衰退。ING将其2025年GDP增长预期从0.9%上调至1.1%,并在不确定性上升的背景下,仍维持对10月加息的预期。

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