IPOs Are Back. Klarna, Figure and Gemini Highlight a Busy Week Ahead

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The initial public offering market is about to heat up again, even as temperatures may be set to fall.

Six companies are on tap to make their debuts during the week starting Monday, according to the IPO research and investing firm Renaissance Capital. The buy-now, pay-later lending firm Klarna and the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, backed by the billionaire Winklevoss twin brothers, are among the highlights.

Also on tap are the building engineering and maintenance firm Legence, blockchain lending platform Figure, public transit software services provider Via Transportation, and Black Rock Coffee. The chain isn't linked to the asset-management company BlackRock.

Klarna is currently planning to sell 34.3 million shares at a price range of $35 to $37. The company would raise about $1.3 billion from the sale, which would value Klarna at around $14 billion.

Gemini intends to raise approximately $300 million from the sale of 16.7 million shares at a price range of $17 to $19. That would value Gemini at about $2.3 billion. Both companies could choose to boost the sizes of their offerings, and the price ranges, before their stocks begin trading.

If recent trading trends are any guide, shares in Klarna, Gemini, and some of the others planning to go public could pop, at least initially, once they start trading.

The IPO market has enjoyed a healthy comeback as of late, along with the broader market. Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group, the design software developer Figma, and Bullish, a crypto trading platform, are among the many that have made splashy debuts in recent months.

But investors need to be cautious. While these and other IPOs posted eye-popping returns out of the starting gate, all three have pulled back from the lofty prices they hit on their first days of trading.

Circle now trades for about $115, more than 60% below its peak of just under $300. Figma, which plunged nearly 20% Thursday following its first earnings report since its IPO, is trading around $55, also more than 60% below its record high of nearly $143. Bullish is hovering around $52, more than 55% from its top price of $118.

Some analysts are expressing caution about the hype surrounding this coming crop of IPOs. Gemini, and Klarna, which lost $52 million in the second quarter, are in focus.

"[Klarna] faces competition from many other similar providers, an uphill battle to improve margins, and is not yet profitable," said Hakan Salt, an associate investment analyst with New Constructs, a research firm, in a report Wednesday. The title of the report? "Don't Buy Now or Later."

Salt cited the fact that Klarna was valued at nearly $46 billion in a round of financing led by SoftBank as recently as 2021 as a warning sign. Klarna's valuation is now less than one-third of that, based on the company's forecasts for its IPO price, and Salt said it still looks like "an overpriced asset."

As for Gemini, investors may be dissuaded by the fact that the company posted a net loss of $282.5 million in the first six months of this year, compared with $41.4 million in red ink in the first half of 2024. "The struggles stem from declining trading volumes," wrote Jacob Zuller, an analyst at Third Bridge, in a report Tuesday.

That means investors looking at Klarna or Gemini should be careful. There could be more attractive entry points after these companies release their first earnings reports in a few months. Newly public stocks also often fall once insiders are allowed to sell shares after lockup periods expire, typically 180 days from the IPO date.

Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, said in a report in late August that "unprofitable companies and those with majority sellers or lockup structures tend to underperform, while profitability at IPO is a key driver of stronger outcomes."

Being first to buy IPOs isn't necessarily best. Patient investors probably should wait for the buzz to subside before thinking of wading in.

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