摩根大通资产管理全球固收、外汇和大宗商品美国首席投资官Kay Herr认为,市场对美联储年内降息幅度的预期合理,当前市场预计美联储将在9月降息约25个基点,并且从现在到年底将降息约70个基点。
Herr周五接受采访时表示:“市场现在预计降息近三次,感觉是合理的。”
她表示,政策制定者可能会为年内进一步降息以及按兵不动留有余地,同时密切关注后续数据。
Herr指出,服务业价格增长将是下周公布的8月通胀数据中的一个关注焦点。
“美联储可以无视商品领域的通胀压力,因为我们可以将其归因于关税带来的一次性涨价。但如果服务业出现持续的通胀压力,那将更难忽视。”
在Herr看来,“对美国例外论消亡的担忧被夸大”,因为美国国债市场和美元没有真正的替代品。
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