【券商聚焦】招商证券维持蒙牛乳业(02319)“强烈推荐”评级 指核心经营利润增长好于预期

金吾财讯
Sep 05, 2025

金吾财讯 | 招商证券发研报指,蒙牛乳业(02319)25H1公司收入415.67亿元,同比-6.95%;归母净利润20.46亿元,同比-16.37%。收入及利润下降主要由于原奶仍阶段性供给过剩,需求恢复不及预期,乳制品行业供需矛盾仍存,业绩基本符合市场预期。如果不考虑现代牧业投资亏损,则公司H1内生利润基本同比持平,内生利润率改善。该机构表示,上半年,公司响应不同年龄人群的多元化需求,推出超百款新品,覆盖从常温奶到低温酸奶、从鲜奶到冰淇淋,从功能牛奶到婴儿配方奶粉的全品类矩阵,引领消费者“喝上奶、喝好奶、喝对奶”。同时,蒙牛加速品类多元化升级,在低温酸奶、鲜奶、奶粉、奶酪、冰品细分赛道均呈增长趋势。品牌创新层面,蒙牛携手国内外经典大 IP轮番为提供消费者情绪价值,联手热门影视剧扩大品牌影响力。全年看,在需求环境不确定下,公司5月主动调整常温白奶价格寻求增长抢占份额,同时继续提升产品覆盖面及品牌影响力,期待需求复苏业绩改善。该机构续指,25H1公司收入/归母净利润同比-6.95%/-16.37%,整体业绩符合预期。收入端看常温半年仍受环境影响承压,其他主要业务普遍呈现增长。利润端受现代牧业亏损增加拖累,经营利润率同比持续改善。在整体外部环境挑战和行业波动周期中,蒙牛的持续精细化运营,带动核心经营利润增长好于预期,实现经营现金流同比提升,期待经营进一步改善。考虑到需求及公司调价影响,该机构调整公司25-26年EPS分别为1.04、1.17,对应25年估值13X,维持“强烈推荐”评级。

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